White flight doesn't seem to be happening after all. What, if anything, does this say about Boston?
Something funny is happening to Boston's new status as a "majority-minority" city - that is, as a place with more nonwhite residents than white. It might not last long. After the 2000 Census documented a white population that had dropped to 49.5 percent, it seemed inevitable that Boston would follow the path blazed by some other US cities, becoming more dominated by blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities.
Instead, in what seemed a stunning demographic turn of events, 2006 data from the US Census Bureau showed the percentage of whites in the city had actually increased to an estimated 50.2 percent. So is Boston now "majority-majority" again? Nope. New 2007 data released recently showed that the number of whites in the city had risen by almost 14,000 since 2000, but Boston's population had grown, too, sending the percentage of whites back down to 49.8.
So what are we to make of all this? One thing's certain: There is no flood of whites from the city. The expectation in 2000 was the shift from a white population to a nonwhite one would continue apace. Clearly, that's not happening. Moreover, a similar reversal is occurring in other US cities. The populations of Atlanta and Washington, D.C., for instance, have for years been largely African-American. Yet new data suggest that, in a few years, blacks in both cities will - numerically - be in a minority. Looking at the data, The Wall Street Journal billed the phenomenon the "end of white flight."
The results of the 2000 Census had provoked much discussion here about white flight, immigration, the future of the city, and political power (e.g., when will Boston finally have a nonwhite mayor?). These latest figures suggest something very different is occurring. But why?
One explanation is that cities have simply become better places in which to live. Since 1993, the hallmark of the Menino administration has been a focus on the nitty-gritty of urban living: better trash collection, cleaner parks, improved schools. Has this attention to quality-of-life issues kept whites from leaving? (Whites generally have higher incomes than blacks and hence have an easier time choosing where they want to live.) Similarly, the dramatic drop in urban crime, in Boston and elsewhere, has made city living remarkably safer. (That's true even now: There are far fewer serious crimes in Boston this year than there were in 2007.) If fear drives people out, wouldn't it be reasonable to assume its absence might bring them in?
Alternatively, perhaps we're seeing a shift in culture and sensibility. Bored suburbanites - especially empty nesters and the younger crowd - increasingly see cities as adult playgrounds, chock-full of restaurants, theaters, and nightclubs. They leave their McMansions and move in, a phenomenon some academics call "demographic inversion" (which is really just a fancy name for gentrification writ large). There are worrisome downsides to this. As wealthy whites move in, prices go up and poorer minorities can be forced out. There's concern that the influx of whites into cities might portend the decline of historically minority institutions such as black churches. There's also fear that black and other minority populations pushed out of cities would become diff use and lose the political power they had gained in urban areas.
I think both of these explanations - safety and fun - have merit. Boston today is a more hospitable and far less intimidating place than it once was. It is also an exciting place, filled with opportunities for people with large disposable incomes to spend their money.
Still, Tom Menino didn't invent the notion of clean streets or crime control. And cities have always been more hip than suburbs. Something else is at play, and it may have to do with the racial antagonism that was behind the largely segregated housing patterns that for so long defined American life. Many have speculated that racism - while certainly still with us - is, at long last, losing its power. They point to Barack Obama's candidacy as proof. Perhaps proof can also be seen in the apparent willingness of whites to move back into cities. Without question, these demographic changes will pose real challenges over the next few years. Still, any lessening of racial and ethnic segregation ultimately has to be seen as a good thing. Maybe we really are learning to get along.
Originally published in The Boston Globe Magazine, October 12, 2008. Illustration by Michelle Thompson.
